TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 21Sunday 7 February · 16:00 · Estádio de São Miguel
Santa Clara4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Alverca10th place
SCL 46%X 29%ALV 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Santa Clara 0.3, Alverca -0.3.
  • Santa Clara take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.3 – 0.9
Over 2.538%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Santa Clara win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.19X29%3.39225%4.01
Double chance
1X75%1.33X254%1.841271%1.42
Goals
Over 2.538%2.65Under 2.562%1.61BTTS yes44%2.27BTTS no56%1.79

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Santa Clara · Columns: Alverca1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Alverca – Santa Clara29 August 20261-1
Alverca – Santa Clara21 February 20261-1
Santa Clara – Alverca20 September 20252-1