TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 21Sunday 7 February · 16:00 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP3rd place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Rio Ave16th place
SCP 83%X 12%RAV 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 336 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Rio Ave -1.0.
  • Last 5 games: Sporting CP 1.6 points per game, Rio Ave 0.8.
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 20% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.2 – 0.8
Over 2.576%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
183%1.20X12%8.2325%20.62
Double chance
1X95%1.05X217%5.881288%1.14
Goals
Over 2.576%1.32Under 2.524%4.14BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sporting CP · Columns: Rio Ave3-0 probability 10.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Rio Ave – Sporting CP28 August 20260-4
Rio Ave – Sporting CP11 May 20261-4
Sporting CP – Rio Ave28 December 20254-0
Rio Ave – Sporting CP18 January 20250-3
Sporting CP – Rio Ave9 August 20243-1
Rio Ave – Sporting CP25 February 20243-3