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Primeira Liga · Matchday 21Sunday 7 February · 16:00 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Casa Pia17th place
MOR 47%X 29%CPA 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Moreirense lead by 78 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Moreirense 2.0 points per game, Casa Pia 1.2.
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 0.9
Over 2.542%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Moreirense win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.13X29%3.48224%4.13
Double chance
1X76%1.32X253%1.891271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.542%2.38Under 2.558%1.73BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Casa Pia1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Casa Pia – Moreirense30 August 20260-1
Casa Pia – Moreirense1 March 20261-1
Moreirense – Casa Pia27 September 20252-1
Moreirense – Casa Pia15 February 20253-2
Casa Pia – Moreirense14 September 20243-1
Casa Pia – Moreirense12 May 20240-1