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Primeira Liga · Matchday 21Sunday 7 February · 16:00 · Estádio do Marítimo
Marítimo14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Arouca5th place
MAR 23%X 26%ARO 51%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 183 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arouca 2.0 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.7
Over 2.554%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.41X26%3.87251%1.94
Double chance
1X49%2.06X277%1.291274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.16BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.25

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marítimo · Columns: Arouca1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →
AroucaLDWWW

Head to head

Arouca – Marítimo29 August 20262-1
Arouca – Marítimo8 April 20231-0
Marítimo – Arouca23 October 20221-1
Arouca – Marítimo14 February 20220-3
Marítimo – Arouca13 September 20212-2