TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 20Saturday 6 February · 14:30 · Stadion im Borussia-Park
M'gladbach18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Freiburg3rd place
BMG 30%X 27%SCF 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 128 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Freiburg 0.3, M'gladbach -0.6.
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.6
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Freiburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.33X27%3.72243%2.32
Double chance
1X57%1.76X270%1.431273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes60%1.65BTTS no40%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: M'gladbach · Columns: Freiburg1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Freiburg – M'gladbach12 September 20265-0
Freiburg – M'gladbach22 February 20262-1
M'gladbach – Freiburg5 October 20250-0
M'gladbach – Freiburg12 April 20251-2
Freiburg – M'gladbach30 November 20243-1
M'gladbach – Freiburg30 March 20240-3