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Bundesliga · Matchday 20Saturday 6 February · 14:30 · VELTINS-Arena
Schalke 0417th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Union Berlin16th place
S04 31%X 30%FCU 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Union Berlin -0.2, Schalke 04 -1.2.
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 13%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.1
Over 2.535%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Union Berlin win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.20X30%3.29238%2.60
Double chance
1X62%1.62X269%1.451270%1.44
Goals
Over 2.535%2.88Under 2.565%1.53BTTS yes43%2.34BTTS no57%1.75

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Schalke 04 · Columns: Union Berlin1-1 probability 14.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Union Berlin – Schalke 0411 September 20261-3
Union Berlin – Schalke 0419 February 20230-0
Schalke 04 – Union Berlin27 August 20221-6