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Bundesliga · Matchday 20Saturday 6 February · 14:30 · Weserstadion
Werder Bremen5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Köln13th place
SVW 50%X 26%KOE 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Werder Bremen lead by 78 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Werder Bremen 2.2 points per game, Köln 1.0.
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Köln score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.1
Over 2.555%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Werder Bremen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.01X26%3.79224%4.22
Double chance
1X76%1.31X250%1.991274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.20BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Werder Bremen · Columns: Köln1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Köln – Werder Bremen12 September 20261-1
Köln – Werder Bremen12 April 20263-1
Werder Bremen – Köln29 November 20251-1
Köln – Werder Bremen16 February 20240-1
Werder Bremen – Köln23 September 20232-1
Werder Bremen – Köln20 May 20231-1