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Bundesliga · Matchday 20Saturday 6 February · 14:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
RB Leipzig4th place
HSV 21%X 24%RBL 55%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 169 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Hamburg -0.7.
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 48% of the time
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.559%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a RB Leipzig win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.69X24%4.23255%1.82
Double chance
1X45%2.22X279%1.271276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.44BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: RB Leipzig1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

RB Leipzig – Hamburg13 September 20265-0
Hamburg – RB Leipzig1 March 20261-2
RB Leipzig – Hamburg18 October 20252-1