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Bundesliga · Matchday 20Saturday 6 February · 14:30 · Home Deluxe Arena
Paderborn14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Dortmund2nd place
SCP 18%X 25%BVB 58%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 231 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Paderborn -0.6.
  • Dortmund take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Paderborn score first, they win 49% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 83% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.6
Over 2.543%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
118%5.67X25%4.08258%1.73
Double chance
1X42%2.37X282%1.211276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.543%2.35Under 2.557%1.74BTTS yes44%2.30BTTS no56%1.77

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
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Rows: Paderborn · Columns: Dortmund0-1 probability 14.2%

Form

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Head to head

Dortmund – Paderborn12 September 20263-0