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Bundesliga · Matchday 6Sunday 18 October · 16:30 · Stadion im Borussia-Park
M'gladbach18th place
Full time1-2Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Exact score
Hoffenheim12th place
BMG 31%X 26%TSG 43%

What does the market say?

M'gladbachDrawHoffenheimRinvalo31%26%43%
Market31%24%46%

✓ Agree · both back Hoffenheim

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Hoffenheim lead by 78 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Hoffenheim 0.1, M'gladbach -0.9.
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 68% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.8
Over 2.565%
Both teams score67%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Hoffenheim win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.24X26%3.87243%2.31
Double chance
1X57%1.76X269%1.451274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.89BTTS yes67%1.50BTTS no33%2.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: M'gladbach · Columns: Hoffenheim1-2 probability 8.9% · final score

Form

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Head to head

M'gladbach – Hoffenheim18 October 20261-2
M'gladbach – Hoffenheim16 May 20264-0
Hoffenheim – M'gladbach14 January 20265-1
M'gladbach – Hoffenheim3 May 20254-4
Hoffenheim – M'gladbach21 December 20241-2
Hoffenheim – M'gladbach20 April 20244-3