TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 6Saturday 17 October · 14:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
Stuttgart11th place
HSV 27%X 25%VFB 48%

What does the market say?

HamburgDrawStuttgartRinvalo27%25%48%
Market25%23%52%

✓ Agree · both back Stuttgart

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Stuttgart lead by 154 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Stuttgart -0.2, Hamburg -1.0.
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Stuttgart score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.8
Over 2.560%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Stuttgart win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.70X25%4.01248%2.08
Double chance
1X52%1.92X273%1.371275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.52BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.62

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: Stuttgart1-0 probability 5.1% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Hamburg – Stuttgart17 October 20261-0
Stuttgart – Hamburg12 April 20264-0
Hamburg – Stuttgart30 November 20252-1