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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 6Saturday 17 October · 14:30 · Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin16th place
Full time0-0Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
Dortmund2nd place
FCU 19%X 24%BVB 57%

What does the market say?

Union BerlinDrawDortmundRinvalo19%24%57%
Market19%21%60%

✓ Agree · both back Dortmund

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 262 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Dortmund 3.0 points per game, Union Berlin 0.8.
  • Dortmund take 2.2 points per game away.
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 47% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.9
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.22X24%4.19257%1.75
Double chance
1X43%2.33X281%1.241276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Union Berlin · Columns: Dortmund0-0 probability 5.7% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Union Berlin – Dortmund17 October 20260-0
Union Berlin – Dortmund24 January 20260-3
Dortmund – Union Berlin31 August 20253-0
Dortmund – Union Berlin22 February 20256-0
Union Berlin – Dortmund5 October 20242-1
Union Berlin – Dortmund2 March 20240-2