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Bundesliga · Matchday 6Sunday 18 October · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Exact score
Freiburg3rd place
B04 55%X 25%SCF 21%

What does the market say?

LeverkusenDrawFreiburgRinvalo55%25%21%
Market55%23%23%

✓ Agree · both back Leverkusen

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Leverkusen take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.2
Over 2.562%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X25%4.07221%4.78
Double chance
1X79%1.26X245%2.201275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.562%1.61Under 2.538%2.65BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Freiburg2-1 probability 9.8% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Leverkusen – Freiburg18 October 20262-1
Freiburg – Leverkusen7 March 20263-3
Leverkusen – Freiburg26 October 20252-0
Freiburg – Leverkusen4 May 20252-2
Leverkusen – Freiburg21 December 20245-1
Freiburg – Leverkusen17 March 20242-3