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Bundesliga · Matchday 6Saturday 17 October · 14:30 · VELTINS-Arena
Schalke 0417th place
Full time0-1Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Exact score
Mainz9th place
S04 28%X 28%M05 44%

What does the market say?

Schalke 04DrawMainzRinvalo28%28%44%
Market32%26%42%

✓ Agree · both back Mainz

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Mainz lead by 93 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Schalke 04 -0.8.
  • Last 5 games: Mainz 2.0 points per game, Schalke 04 1.0.
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.3
Over 2.542%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.51X28%3.60244%2.28
Double chance
1X56%1.78X272%1.401272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.542%2.37Under 2.558%1.73BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.94

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Schalke 04 · Columns: Mainz0-1 probability 11.7% · final score

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Schalke 04 – Mainz17 October 20260-1
Mainz – Schalke 045 May 20232-3
Schalke 04 – Mainz9 November 20221-0