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Bundesliga · Matchday 18Saturday 23 January · 14:30 · Stadion im Borussia-Park
M'gladbach18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
RB Leipzig4th place
BMG 20%X 23%RBL 57%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 172 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, M'gladbach -0.6.
  • Last 5 games: RB Leipzig 1.8 points per game, M'gladbach 0.8.
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 46% of the time
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.2 – 2.1
Over 2.564%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a RB Leipzig win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%4.92X23%4.37257%1.76
Double chance
1X43%2.31X280%1.261277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Under 2.537%2.74BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.61

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: M'gladbach · Columns: RB Leipzig1-1 probability 10.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

RB Leipzig – M'gladbach29 August 20263-0
RB Leipzig – M'gladbach11 April 20261-0
M'gladbach – RB Leipzig28 November 20250-0
M'gladbach – RB Leipzig29 March 20251-0
RB Leipzig – M'gladbach9 November 20240-0
RB Leipzig – M'gladbach17 February 20242-0