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Bundesliga · Matchday 18Saturday 23 January · 14:30 · Home Deluxe Arena
Paderborn14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Mainz9th place
SCP 31%X 28%M05 41%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Paderborn -0.6.
  • Mainz take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Paderborn score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.3
Over 2.543%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.27X28%3.54241%2.43
Double chance
1X59%1.70X269%1.441272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.543%2.33Under 2.557%1.75BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paderborn · Columns: Mainz1-1 probability 13.9%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Mainz – Paderborn29 August 20260-0