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Bundesliga · Matchday 18Saturday 23 January · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Elversberg7th place
B04 68%X 19%SVE 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 103 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Leverkusen 0.1, Elversberg -0.7.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Elversberg score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals2.8 – 1.3
Over 2.577%
Both teams score68%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.48X19%5.17213%7.62
Double chance
1X87%1.15X232%3.081281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.577%1.30Under 2.523%4.32BTTS yes68%1.47BTTS no32%3.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Elversberg2-1 probability 8.6%

Form

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Head to head

Elversberg – Leverkusen29 August 20263-2