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Bundesliga · Matchday 18Saturday 23 January · 14:30 · Weserstadion
Werder Bremen5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Freiburg3rd place
SVW 39%X 28%SCF 33%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Werder Bremen 2.2 points per game, Freiburg 1.4.
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.556%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Werder Bremen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.56X28%3.62233%3.00
Double chance
1X67%1.50X261%1.641272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.48

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Werder Bremen · Columns: Freiburg1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Freiburg – Werder Bremen30 August 20264-1
Freiburg – Werder Bremen7 February 20261-0
Werder Bremen – Freiburg20 September 20250-3
Freiburg – Werder Bremen21 February 20255-0
Werder Bremen – Freiburg5 October 20240-1
Werder Bremen – Freiburg27 January 20243-1