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Bundesliga · Matchday 18Saturday 23 January · 14:30 · VELTINS-Arena
Schalke 0417th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Augsburg10th place
S04 27%X 28%FCA 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Augsburg lead by 88 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Augsburg -0.5, Schalke 04 -1.2.
  • If Schalke 04 score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.4
Over 2.541%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Augsburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.76X28%3.63246%2.18
Double chance
1X54%1.85X273%1.361272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.541%2.47Under 2.559%1.68BTTS yes46%2.15BTTS no54%1.87

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Schalke 04 · Columns: Augsburg1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Augsburg – Schalke 0430 August 20263-0
Augsburg – Schalke 0418 March 20231-1
Schalke 04 – Augsburg2 October 20222-3