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Bundesliga · Matchday 18Saturday 23 January · 14:30 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Köln13th place
TSG 57%X 24%KOE 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Hoffenheim lead by 93 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Hoffenheim 0.4, Köln -0.1.
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Köln score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.2
Over 2.563%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Hoffenheim win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.75X24%4.15219%5.32
Double chance
1X81%1.23X243%2.331276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.563%1.59Under 2.537%2.68BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.54

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: Köln1-1 probability 10.1%

Form

Compare →
KölnLWLDD

Head to head

Köln – Hoffenheim29 August 20263-2
Köln – Hoffenheim21 February 20262-2
Hoffenheim – Köln3 October 20250-1
Hoffenheim – Köln11 February 20241-1
Köln – Hoffenheim16 September 20231-3
Hoffenheim – Köln22 April 20231-3