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Bundesliga · Matchday 18Saturday 23 January · 14:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Dortmund2nd place
HSV 21%X 24%BVB 55%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 246 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Hamburg -0.7.
  • Dortmund take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 50% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.8
Over 2.553%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.76X24%4.09255%1.83
Double chance
1X45%2.20X279%1.271276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →
HamburgWWWLL

Head to head

Dortmund – Hamburg29 August 20262-0
Dortmund – Hamburg21 March 20263-2
Hamburg – Dortmund8 November 20251-1