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Eredivisie · Matchday 29Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Euroborg
Groningen8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Excelsior15th place
GRO 59%X 23%EXC 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Groningen lead by 99 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Groningen 1.4 points per game, Excelsior 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Groningen -0.2, Excelsior -1.1.
  • If Groningen score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.2
Over 2.565%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.70X23%4.31218%5.57
Double chance
1X82%1.22X241%2.431277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.565%1.55Under 2.535%2.82BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Groningen · Columns: Excelsior2-1 probability 9.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Excelsior – Groningen11 October 20261-5
Groningen – Excelsior2 May 20262-3
Excelsior – Groningen5 December 20250-2
Groningen – Excelsior25 February 20233-0
Excelsior – Groningen8 January 20231-0