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Eredivisie · Matchday 29Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Stadion Galgenwaard
Utrecht12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Ajax2nd place
UTR 26%X 25%AJA 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 153 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, Utrecht -0.6.
  • Ajax take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.9
Over 2.562%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Ajax win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.91X25%4.03250%2.02
Double chance
1X50%1.99X274%1.341275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.562%1.61Under 2.538%2.64BTTS yes63%1.59BTTS no37%2.69

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Utrecht · Columns: Ajax1-1 probability 10.8%

Form

Compare →
UtrechtLWWDL
AjaxDDWWW

Head to head

Ajax – Utrecht10 May 20261-2
Utrecht – Ajax9 November 20252-1
Utrecht – Ajax20 April 20254-0
Ajax – Utrecht4 December 20242-2
Ajax – Utrecht3 March 20242-0
Utrecht – Ajax22 October 20234-3