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Eredivisie · Matchday 29Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Koning Willem II Stadion
Willem II18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
AZ Alkmaar5th place
WIL 10%X 16%AZ 74%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 293 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Willem II -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: AZ Alkmaar 0.8 points per game, Willem II 0.0.
  • If Willem II score first, they win 31% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals0.9 – 2.6
Over 2.568%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
110%9.62X16%6.26274%1.36
Double chance
1X26%3.79X290%1.121284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.568%1.48Under 2.532%3.08BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Willem II · Columns: AZ Alkmaar0-2 probability 10.4%

Form

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Head to head

AZ Alkmaar – Willem II11 September 20261-1
Willem II – AZ Alkmaar2 February 20250-2
AZ Alkmaar – Willem II10 November 20241-2
Willem II – AZ Alkmaar20 March 20222-2
AZ Alkmaar – Willem II18 December 20214-1