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Ligue 1 · Matchday 17Saturday 23 January · 16:00 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Brest10th place
RCL 55%X 25%BRE 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lens lead by 95 rating points.
  • Lens take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Lens score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Brest score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X25%3.98220%4.91
Double chance
1X80%1.26X245%2.201275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.36

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Brest1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL
BrestLWDLW

Head to head

Brest – Lens24 April 20263-3
Lens – Brest29 August 20253-1
Brest – Lens20 April 20251-3
Lens – Brest25 August 20242-0
Lens – Brest9 March 20241-0
Brest – Lens13 August 20233-2