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Ligue 1 · Matchday 17Saturday 23 January · 16:00 · Stade du Moustoir
Lorient10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Marseille6th place
LOR 39%X 28%OM 34%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lorient 0.1, Marseille -0.4.
  • If Lorient score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.3
Over 2.553%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lorient win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.57X28%3.63234%2.97
Double chance
1X66%1.51X261%1.641272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes58%1.74BTTS no42%2.36

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lorient · Columns: Marseille1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Lorient – Marseille18 April 20262-0
Marseille – Lorient12 September 20254-0
Marseille – Lorient12 May 20243-1
Lorient – Marseille10 December 20232-4
Lorient – Marseille9 April 20230-0
Marseille – Lorient14 January 20233-1