TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 17Saturday 23 January · 16:00 · Stade de la Meinau
Strasbourg12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Lyon3rd place
STR 33%X 27%OL 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Lyon 1.8 points per game, Strasbourg 0.6.
  • Lyon lead by 72 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Strasbourg -0.4.
  • If Strasbourg score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.557%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.04X27%3.64240%2.52
Double chance
1X60%1.66X267%1.491273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.557%1.77Under 2.543%2.30BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.51

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Strasbourg · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Strasbourg – Lyon22 February 20263-1
Lyon – Strasbourg26 October 20252-1
Strasbourg – Lyon28 March 20254-2
Lyon – Strasbourg30 August 20244-3
Lyon – Strasbourg19 May 20242-1
Strasbourg – Lyon13 August 20232-1