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Ligue 1 · Matchday 17Saturday 23 January · 16:00 · Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Nice8th place
TFC 53%X 25%NIC 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Nice -0.4.
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Nice score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.550%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Toulouse win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.88X25%3.92221%4.70
Double chance
1X79%1.27X247%2.141275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Toulouse · Columns: Nice1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →
NiceWWLWW

Head to head

Toulouse – Nice17 January 20265-1
Nice – Toulouse16 August 20250-1
Toulouse – Nice2 February 20251-1
Nice – Toulouse25 August 20241-1
Toulouse – Nice3 March 20242-1
Nice – Toulouse26 November 20231-0