TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 17Saturday 23 January · 16:00 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Auxerre14th place
PSG 81%X 13%AUX 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 259 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Paris Saint-Germain 3.0 points per game, Auxerre 1.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 1.0, Auxerre -0.5.
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 24% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.8 – 0.7
Over 2.569%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
181%1.24X13%7.5426%16.86
Double chance
1X94%1.06X219%5.211287%1.15
Goals
Over 2.569%1.46Under 2.531%3.19BTTS yes48%2.09BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris Saint-Germain · Columns: Auxerre2-0 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Auxerre – Paris Saint-Germain23 January 20260-1
Paris Saint-Germain – Auxerre27 September 20252-0
Paris Saint-Germain – Auxerre17 May 20253-1
Auxerre – Paris Saint-Germain6 December 20240-0
Auxerre – Paris Saint-Germain21 May 20231-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Auxerre13 November 20225-0