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Ligue 1 · Matchday 25Saturday 20 March · 16:00 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Lille2nd place
RCL 45%X 28%LIL 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lens take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Lens score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Lille score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.545%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.22X28%3.57227%3.70
Double chance
1X73%1.37X255%1.821272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.545%2.25Under 2.555%1.80BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Lille1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL
LilleLWDDW

Head to head

Lille – Lens30 October 20261-0
Lille – Lens4 April 20263-0
Lens – Lille20 September 20253-0
Lille – Lens30 March 20251-0
Lens – Lille26 October 20240-2
Lille – Lens29 March 20242-1