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Ligue 1 · Matchday 25Saturday 20 March · 16:00 · Stade de l'Aube
Troyes16th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Auxerre14th place
ETG 35%X 28%AUX 37%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Auxerre lead by 108 rating points.
  • If Troyes score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Auxerre win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.85X28%3.58237%2.70
Double chance
1X63%1.59X265%1.541272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.548%2.10Under 2.552%1.91BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Troyes · Columns: Auxerre1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →
TroyesLLLDW
AuxerreWLWDL

Head to head

Auxerre – Troyes1 April 20231-0
Troyes – Auxerre4 November 20221-1