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Ligue 1 · Matchday 25Sunday 21 March · 19:45 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Lyon3rd place
OM 40%X 27%OL 33%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Derby match.
  • If Marseille score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.50X27%3.69233%3.04
Double chance
1X67%1.49X260%1.671273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.36BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.56

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marseille · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Marseille – Lyon1 March 20263-2
Lyon – Marseille31 August 20251-0
Marseille – Lyon2 February 20253-2
Lyon – Marseille22 September 20242-3
Lyon – Marseille4 February 20241-0
Marseille – Lyon6 December 20233-0