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Ligue 1 · Matchday 23Saturday 6 March · 16:00 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Strasbourg12th place
RCL 58%X 24%STR 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Lens 1.8 points per game, Strasbourg 0.6.
  • Lens lead by 67 rating points.
  • Lens take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Lens score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Strasbourg score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.1
Over 2.562%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.73X24%4.24218%5.43
Double chance
1X82%1.23X242%2.381276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.562%1.61Under 2.538%2.64BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.49

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Strasbourg1-1 probability 10.2%

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL

Head to head

Strasbourg – Lens29 August 20262-1
Strasbourg – Lens27 February 20261-1
Lens – Strasbourg22 November 20251-0
Lens – Strasbourg16 February 20250-2
Strasbourg – Lens6 October 20242-2
Lens – Strasbourg10 February 20243-1