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Ligue 1 · Matchday 23Saturday 6 March · 16:00 · Stade de l'Aube
Troyes16th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Lorient10th place
ETG 26%X 28%LOR 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lorient lead by 164 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lorient 1.6 points per game, Troyes 0.8.
  • If Troyes score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Lorient score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.4
Over 2.543%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lorient win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.90X28%3.58246%2.15
Double chance
1X54%1.87X274%1.341272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.543%2.32Under 2.557%1.76BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.94

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Troyes · Columns: Lorient1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →
TroyesLLLDW
LorientDLWWD

Head to head

Lorient – Troyes29 August 20261-2
Lorient – Troyes12 March 20232-0
Troyes – Lorient23 October 20222-2
Lorient – Troyes21 May 20221-1
Troyes – Lorient1 December 20212-0