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Ligue 1 · Matchday 23Saturday 6 March · 16:00 · Stade Jean-Bouin
Paris FC4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Brest10th place
PFC 51%X 26%BRE 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris FC lead by 61 rating points.
  • Paris FC take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Brest score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.1
Over 2.554%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Paris FC win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.96X26%3.78223%4.44
Double chance
1X77%1.29X249%2.041274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.26

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris FC · Columns: Brest1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →
BrestLWDLW

Head to head

Paris FC – Brest3 May 20264-0
Brest – Paris FC14 September 20251-2