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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 23Saturday 6 March · 16:00 · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Marseille6th place
LIL 48%X 27%OM 25%

Prediction

  • If Lille score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.07X27%3.76225%4.00
Double chance
1X75%1.33X252%1.941273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lille · Columns: Marseille1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →
LilleLWDDW

Head to head

Marseille – Lille22 March 20261-2
Lille – Marseille5 December 20251-0
Lille – Marseille4 May 20251-1
Marseille – Lille14 December 20241-1
Lille – Marseille5 April 20243-1
Marseille – Lille4 November 20230-0