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Ligue 1 · Matchday 23Saturday 6 March · 16:00 · Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Le Mans17th place
TFC 65%X 21%LMS 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Toulouse lead by 100 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Le Mans -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Toulouse 1.6 points per game, Le Mans 0.8.
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Le Mans score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.9
Over 2.556%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.53X21%4.73214%7.33
Double chance
1X86%1.16X235%2.881279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.28BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Toulouse · Columns: Le Mans2-0 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →
Le MansWLLDL

Head to head

Le Mans – Toulouse16 October 20260-3