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Ligue 1 · Matchday 23Saturday 6 March · 16:00 · Stade Louis II
Monaco7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Lyon3rd place
MON 38%X 28%OL 34%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Monaco take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Monaco score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.3
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Monaco win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.62X28%3.55234%2.97
Double chance
1X66%1.51X262%1.621272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.553%1.90Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monaco · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
MonacoWDLDL
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Lyon – Monaco22 March 20261-2
Monaco – Lyon3 January 20261-3
Monaco – Lyon10 May 20252-0
Lyon – Monaco24 August 20240-2
Lyon – Monaco28 April 20243-2
Monaco – Lyon15 December 20230-1