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Bundesliga · Matchday 32Saturday 8 May · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Hamburg15th place
B04 63%X 22%HSV 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 144 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Leverkusen 0.1, Hamburg -0.7.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.1
Over 2.564%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.59X22%4.59215%6.58
Double chance
1X85%1.18X237%2.701278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.564%1.56Under 2.536%2.79BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.44

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Hamburg2-1 probability 9.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Leverkusen – Hamburg16 May 20261-1
Hamburg – Leverkusen4 March 20260-1