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Bundesliga · Matchday 32Saturday 8 May · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Dortmund2nd place
M05 29%X 26%BVB 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 191 rating points.
  • Dortmund take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.6
Over 2.555%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.43X26%3.79245%2.25
Double chance
1X55%1.80X271%1.411274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes59%1.71BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Dortmund – Mainz13 February 20264-0
Mainz – Dortmund27 September 20250-2
Dortmund – Mainz30 March 20253-1
Mainz – Dortmund9 November 20243-1
Mainz – Dortmund11 May 20243-0
Dortmund – Mainz19 December 20231-1