TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 27Saturday 10 April · 16:00 · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Toulouse12th place
LIL 49%X 28%TFC 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lille lead by 100 rating points.
  • If Lille score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.9
Over 2.543%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.04X28%3.60223%4.29
Double chance
1X77%1.30X251%1.961272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.543%2.34Under 2.557%1.74BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lille · Columns: Toulouse1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →
LilleLWDDW

Head to head

Toulouse – Lille3 September 20260-1
Toulouse – Lille12 April 20260-4
Lille – Toulouse14 September 20252-1
Toulouse – Lille12 April 20251-2
Lille – Toulouse5 October 20242-1
Toulouse – Lille25 February 20243-1