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Ligue 1 · Matchday 27Saturday 10 April · 16:00 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Brest14th place
OM 53%X 25%BRE 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 102 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Marseille 2.4 points per game, Brest 0.8.
  • If Marseille score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Brest score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.3
Over 2.565%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.88X25%4.03222%4.53
Double chance
1X78%1.28X247%2.131275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.85BTTS yes64%1.57BTTS no36%2.77

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marseille · Columns: Brest1-1 probability 10.0%

Form

Compare →
BrestLLWDL

Head to head

Brest – Marseille20 February 20262-0
Marseille – Brest8 November 20253-0
Marseille – Brest27 April 20254-1
Brest – Marseille17 August 20241-5
Brest – Marseille18 February 20241-0
Marseille – Brest26 August 20232-0