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Ligue 1 · Matchday 27Saturday 10 April · 16:00 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Strasbourg13th place
OL 56%X 25%STR 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Lyon 1.8 points per game, Strasbourg 0.6.
  • Lyon lead by 72 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Strasbourg -0.4.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Strasbourg score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.80X25%4.05220%5.07
Double chance
1X80%1.25X244%2.251275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.41BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.37

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Strasbourg1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Strasbourg – Lyon22 February 20263-1
Lyon – Strasbourg26 October 20252-1
Strasbourg – Lyon28 March 20254-2
Lyon – Strasbourg30 August 20244-3
Lyon – Strasbourg19 May 20242-1
Strasbourg – Lyon13 August 20232-1