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Ligue 1 · Matchday 34Saturday 29 May · 20:00 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Paris FC4th place
OL 45%X 28%PFC 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.1
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.23X28%3.57227%3.67
Double chance
1X73%1.37X255%1.811272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.02Under 2.551%1.98BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Paris FC1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Paris FC – Lyon12 September 20260-0
Lyon – Paris FC8 March 20261-1
Paris FC – Lyon29 October 20253-3