TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 34Saturday 29 May · 20:00 · Orange Vélodrome
Marseille6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Lorient10th place
OM 50%X 26%LOR 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 68 rating points.
  • If Marseille score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Lorient score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.1
Over 2.554%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.01X26%3.78224%4.20
Double chance
1X76%1.31X250%1.991274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.19BTTS yes57%1.77BTTS no43%2.30

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marseille · Columns: Lorient1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Lorient – Marseille18 April 20262-0
Marseille – Lorient12 September 20254-0
Marseille – Lorient12 May 20243-1
Lorient – Marseille10 December 20232-4
Lorient – Marseille9 April 20230-0
Marseille – Lorient14 January 20233-1