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Championship · Matchday 13Saturday 31 October · 15:00 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Full time3-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Charlton Athletic20th place
MID 68%X 21%CHA 11%

What does the market say?

MiddlesbroughDrawCharlton AthleticRinvalo68%21%11%
Market75%16%9%

✓ Agree · both back Middlesbrough

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 154 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 0.8, Charlton Athletic -0.6.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 1.8 points per game, Charlton Athletic 0.6.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Charlton Athletic score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.7
Over 2.548%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.48X21%4.76211%8.73
Double chance
1X89%1.13X232%3.081279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes42%2.39BTTS no58%1.72

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Charlton Athletic3-0 probability 9.1% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic31 October 20263-0
Middlesbrough – Charlton Athletic11 March 20260-1
Charlton Athletic – Middlesbrough9 December 20251-2