TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 13Saturday 31 October · 15:00 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Full time4-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
QPR9th place
SOU 61%X 23%QPR 16%

What does the market say?

SouthamptonDrawQPRRinvalo61%23%16%
Market52%24%24%

✓ Agree · both back Southampton

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 140 rating points.
  • Southampton take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If QPR score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.1
Over 2.563%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.63X23%4.43216%6.24
Double chance
1X84%1.19X239%2.591277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.73BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.45

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: QPR4-1 probability 3.9% · final score

Form

Compare →
QPRDWLWL

Head to head

Southampton – QPR31 October 20264-1
Southampton – QPR24 February 20265-0
QPR – Southampton5 November 20251-2
QPR – Southampton23 December 20230-1
Southampton – QPR26 August 20232-1