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Championship · Matchday 13Saturday 31 October · 12:30 · Carrow Road
Norwich City15th place
Full time3-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Watford21st place
NOR 60%X 24%WAT 16%

What does the market say?

Norwich CityDrawWatfordRinvalo60%24%16%
Market61%22%18%

✓ Agree · both back Norwich City

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Norwich City lead by 110 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Norwich City 0.3, Watford -0.9.
  • If Norwich City score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.553%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Norwich City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.67X24%4.21216%6.13
Double chance
1X84%1.19X240%2.501276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Norwich City · Columns: Watford3-2 probability 2.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Norwich City – Watford31 October 20263-2
Norwich City – Watford29 December 20250-1
Watford – Norwich City6 December 20253-2
Watford – Norwich City1 February 20250-1
Norwich City – Watford21 September 20244-1
Norwich City – Watford13 February 20244-2