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Championship · Matchday 13Saturday 31 October · 15:00 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Full time4-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Derby County23rd place
MIL 59%X 24%DER 17%

What does the market say?

MillwallDrawDerby CountyRinvalo59%24%17%
Market56%25%20%

✓ Agree · both back Millwall

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.7, Derby County -1.0.
  • Millwall lead by 84 rating points.
  • If Millwall score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.8
Over 2.548%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.70X24%4.09217%6.02
Double chance
1X83%1.20X241%2.431276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.92BTTS yes47%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Derby County4-1 probability 2.5% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Millwall – Derby County31 October 20264-1
Millwall – Derby County10 March 20261-0
Derby County – Millwall10 December 20251-1
Derby County – Millwall22 February 20250-1
Millwall – Derby County19 October 20241-1
Derby County – Millwall23 February 20221-2