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Championship · Matchday 41Tuesday 6 April · 19:45 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
MIL 32%X 28%MID 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 83 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Millwall 1.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Millwall 0.5.
  • If Millwall score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.551%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.10X28%3.60240%2.50
Double chance
1X60%1.67X268%1.481272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.551%1.94Under 2.549%2.06BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Middlesbrough1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Middlesbrough – Millwall15 September 20262-2
Middlesbrough – Millwall3 April 20261-2
Millwall – Middlesbrough16 August 20250-3
Millwall – Middlesbrough12 April 20251-0
Middlesbrough – Millwall14 December 20241-0
Millwall – Middlesbrough13 January 20241-3